Description: This article is a response to the article Current U.S. Ordinary Life Mortality by Doug Doll and Mike Jones. The author offers his interpretation of the mortality improvements observed between 1980-85 and 1983-88.

Description: It is believed that exponential growth of mortality with age (Gompertz law) is followed by a period of deceleration, with slower rates of mortality increase at older ages. We compared the performance (goodness-of-fit) of two competing models-the Gompertz model and the logistic (Kannisto) model using data for 22 birth cohorts of U.S. men and women in the age interval 80-105 years. In all cases the Gompertz model fits mortality data significantly better than the Kannisto model. Another approach to study mortality patterns at advanced ages is based on Life table Aging Rate (LAR). It was found that for all studied 24 single-year birth cohorts LAR does not change significantly with age in the age interval 80-100 years suggesting the validity of Gompertz law. These results suggest that mortality deceleration at advanced ages is not a universal phenomenon, and human survival follows the Gompertz law up to very old ages.

Description: Abstract: It is believed that exponential growth of mortality with age (Gompertz law) is followed by a period of deceleration, with slower rates of mortality increase at older ages. We compared the performance (goodness-of-fit) of two competing models-the Gompertz model and the logistic (Kannisto) model using data for 22 birth cohorts of U.S. men and women in the age interval 80-105 years. In all cases the Gompertz model fits mortality data significantly better than the Kannisto model. Another approach to study mortality patterns at advanced ages is based on Life table Aging Rate (LAR). It was found that for all studied 24 single-year birth cohorts LAR does not change significantly with age in the age interval 80-100 years suggesting the validity of Gompertz law. These results suggest that mortality deceleration at advanced ages is not a universal phenomenon, and human survival follows the Gompertz law up to very old ages

Description: A multiway typology of measures of aging, longevity and superlongevity is presented, with measures classified as measures of aging and longevity, direct and indirect measures of aging and longevity, and measures based on population data, death statistics and life table functions.

Description: A multiway typology of measures of aging, longevity and superlongevity is presented, with measures classified as measures of aging and longevity, direct and indirect measures of aging and longevity, and measures based on population data, death statistics and life table functions.

Description: This paper offers basic, economic and actuarial ideas to improve the balance of cost, access to treatment and quality over time.

Description: This paper suggests a number of legislative changes, educational efforts, and changes in annuity products and asset allocation software that could assist workers and retirees to better prepare for and respond to declining mortality rates and future increases in income needs. From Retirement Needs Framework, M-RS00-1.

Description: This paper generalizes the life table to include the effects of observed and unobserved tine-varying health-related covariates using a longitudinal form of the Grade of Membership model to specify and estimate a multivariate model of the trajectories of disability and mortality among elderly respondents to the NLTCS of 1984, 1989, 1994, and 1999. From 2005 Living to 100 and Beyond Monograph, M-LI05-1.

Description: Presented at Living to 100 symposium, January 2002. This paper presents data on the mortality, and mortality improvement trends, for retired U.S. Civil Service employees and their survivors, and analyzes the relationship to such factors as: Indexed final salary, Amount of indexed annuity, Total service at retirement, Duration on the Annuity Rolls, Retiree vs. beneficiary, Disability vs. non-disability.

Description: This paper investigates the use of models of dependent mortality for determining annuity values. We discuss a broad class of parametric models using a bivariate survivorship function called a copula. Using data from a large insurance company to illustrate our methods, we calculate maximum likelihood estimates to calibrate the rnodel.